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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.