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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."